I told you in August that Alabama?would repeat as college footballs national champion. I havent changed my mind.I told you Clemson, Michigan?and Oklahoma?would join the Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff. I still might get three out of four correct.I told you Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson would win the Heisman Trophy. Its likely to end up with another ACC quarterback, Lamar Jackson of Louisville, although Watsons chances arent dead yet.I told you the Pac-12 would be left out of the CFP for the second straight season. Now Im guessing its probably the Big 12.How will the second half of the season shape up? Im standing firm with some of my original predictions and flipping on others. (Im literally flipping a coin as to whether Michigan or Ohio State?is going to win at the Horseshoe on Nov. 26.)Here are 15 predictions for what will happen the rest of the way:1. The Tide will roll -- theres just no stopping this Alabama dynastyNick Sabans 10th Alabama team is beginning to look like his best one yet, even better than the four previous teams that won national titles. This is his fastest and most athletic defense; how else to explain 11 non-offensive touchdowns in seven games? And freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has transformed the way Alabama plays offensively. The scariest part: I think Alabama is just now starting to heat up.The Crimson Tide will win each of their next five regular-season games by 10 points or more -- sweeping aside several ranked teams along the way -- and will rout Tennessee in the SEC championship game. Then Alabama will win a close game against Clemson in the CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Dec. 31, before defeating Ohio State in another close game in the College Football Playoff National Championship in Tampa, Florida, on Jan. 9.After guiding Alabama to its fifth national championship, Oct. 31 (Sabans birthday) will be declared a state holiday in Alabama (except at Auburn, of course).2. Once again, Michigan-Ohio State will be the epicenter of college footballThe brewing rivalry between Michigans Jim Harbaugh and Ohio States Urban Meyer is only getting started. It might even be a second edition of the Ten Year War, when legendary coaches Bo Schembechler and Woody Hayes battled each other every season from 1969 to 78.Meyer took Round 1 in resounding fashion last season, as the Buckeyes routed the Wolverines 42-13 at the Big House. This seasons game will be at the Horseshoe in Columbus on Nov. 26. Both teams will be undefeated, and both will be ranked in the top three. The Big Ten East title, a spot in the Big Ten championship game and one of the four berths in the CFP will be on the line.Get used to the high stakes. I have a feeling its going to be like this every season, as long as Harbaugh and Meyer are coaching in the Big Ten.3. Apple Cup win will propel Washington to the playoffIve already given you three of the teams that will make the playoff: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. That leaves only one more spot, and it will be decided after what is shaping up to be one of the greatest regular-season weekends in history.On Nov. 25, No. 5 Washington?plays at Washington State?in the Apple Cup. The next day, No. 21 Auburn plays at No. 1 Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and No. 3 Michigan plays at No. 2 Ohio State.Along with the Crimson Tide, the Buckeyes, Huskies and Wolverines will each be undefeated entering their regular-season finales. Alabama will beat Auburn, and Ohio State will defeat Michigan. The Wolverines will finish 11-1 and will be left out of the playoff because Washington will have toppled Washington State in the Apple Cup the day before to finish 12-0. The Huskies will then defeat Utah in the Pac-12 championship game to punch their ticket to the CFP Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl.It will mark a rapid rebuilding job for Huskies coach Chris Petersen. So far this season, Washington has outscored its opponents by 212 points through six games. That marks the Huskies biggest point differential since 1991, when they won a share of the national championship.4. You can hand out the Heisman Trophy todayJackson will be the winner of the September Heisman -- and October, November and December. Hell join previous Heisman Trophy winners Tim Tebow (Florida, 2007), Cam Newton (Auburn, 2010) and Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M, 2012) as the only FBS players to score more than 20 rushing and 20 passing touchdowns in a season. ?Watson, Washington quarterback Jake Browning, San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey and Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett will be the other finalists invited to New York. But Jackson will win in a landslide.5. Texas will finish 5-7 and coach Charlie Strong will lose his jobAfter losing three games in a row, Texas?righted its ship with a 27-6 victory over Iowa State. The Longhorns are three-point underdogs at Kansas State on Saturday, and they might be favored in only one of their remaining six games (at Kansas?on Nov. 19). For Texas to even finish 6-6, the Longhorns are going to have to win at least one of two road games -- at Kansas State?and Texas Tech?-- or upset No. 9 Baylor, No. 12 West Virginia?or TCU?at home. Its not going to happen.After missing the postseason for the second year in a row, Texas will fire Strong, which might be the best thing for both sides. Strong is a good coach with a good track record and probably deserves more time to turn around UT. But thats not the way college football works anymore. Whoever replaces Strong will reap the benefits of the positive things he did in three seasons, such as playing freshman quarterback Shane Buechele, reloading the roster and instilling discipline.6. The Longhorns win the Tom Herman sweepstakesIts actually not going to be much of a sweepstakes because other attractive jobs such as Auburn, Notre Dame?and USC?arent going to open. The Longhorns will land Herman, the hottest name in the coaching carousel, by luring him to Austin with an annual salary of more than $6 million and a promise that hell have some input in the hiring of Texas new athletic director.After guiding Houston to 23 victories in two seasons, Herman will be the obvious choice to replace Strong, and Herman will prefer Texas over LSU because of its brand and his already-established relationships with Texas high school recruits and coaches. Plus, its a heck of a lot easier to win the Big 12 than the SEC West as long as Saban is still coaching.7. Ed Orgeron will ace his LSU interviewAfter missing out on Herman and Florida States Jimbo Fisher, the Tigers will hire Orgeron. Many LSU?insiders say this is what athletics director Joe Alleva has wanted to do since the day he fired former coach Les Miles.Orgeron wont be judged as much by LSUs final record as its improvement on the field. In only two games, the Tigers have shown dramatic improvement on offense. After setting a school record for total offense in an SEC game with 634 yards in a 42-7 rout of Missouri, the Tigers averaged 10.9 yards per play in a 45-10 win over Southern Miss, their highest in a game since at least 1960. Thats called progress.If the Tigers can keep defensive coordinator Dave Aranda and bring in a high-profile offensive coordinator, Orgeron might be in line to get the job. Hes a Louisiana native and a relentless recruiter who is well-liked by high school coaches in the state. Plus, hed probably come cheap compared to more established coaches, and finances have to be a concern for a cash-strapped university, especially after Miles was paid a buyout of at least $10 million.8. Baylor will finish with one loss -- to Big 12 champion OklahomaGiven everything that has transpired at Baylor?in the wake of the universitys sexual assault scandal, acting coach Jim Grobe and his staff have done a remarkable job guiding the Bears to a 6-0 record. But Baylors fast start might not be as good as it looks on paper. The Bears have beaten only one FBS opponent with a winning record (Oklahoma State), and three of the teams they defeated are a combined 2-17.The Bears will win at Texas on Oct. 29 and will survive a shootout at home against TCU on Nov. 5, but they wont win at No. 16 Oklahoma the next week. The Sooners, who were left for dead after early losses to Houston and Ohio State, are going to finish the regular season with a nine-game winning streak to claim a Big 12 title.9. Art Briles will coach again next season -- in the NFLBriles, who was fired after the scathing findings of the Pepper Hamilton report, might coach in college football again, but it wont be next season. Theres too much left unresolved in what actually transpired during his watch at Baylor, and I dont think theres an athletic director or university president who would be willing to take a chance in hiring him after this season.Briles is currently working as a guest coach for the Cleveland Browns, and Im betting an NFL team is probably willing to hire him in some capacity for the 2017 season.10. Brian Kelly will get a chance to redeem himself after this seasonNotre Dame, which was considered a potential dark horse to make the CFP in some preseason predictions, has lost four of its past five games to drop to 2-5. There arent many winnable games left on the schedule, but Im guessing the Fighting Irish will find a way to win at least two more to finish 4-8. That would be Notre Dames second-worst finish since 1963; it went 3-9 under Charlie Weis in 2007.Since Notre Dame only recently finished making the payments on Weis $18.9 million buyout, Im pretty sure it wont have a quick trigger in ending Kellys tenure. Kelly signed a six-year contract extension in January through the 2021 season, but he needs to hire a quality defensive coordinator after firing Brian VanGorder four games into the season.Kelly might want to consider polishing up his demeanor on the sideline and his interaction with his players. A little more personal accountability wouldnt hurt, either.11. Western Michigan will row its boats to the Cotton BowlNo. 11 Houston?is the highest-rated team from a Group of 5 conference, but the Cougars might not be the best bet to be invited to a New Years Six bowl. Unless Navy?loses two of its remaining AAC games, the Midshipmen will win the AAC West because of their 46-40 upset of Houston. The automatic invite to a New Years Six bowl goes to the highest-rated champion from a Group of 5 league, and Houston might not even get an opportunity to play in the AAC championship game.That puts No. 14 Boise State?in the best position, but it has a pretty difficult stretch left to play. The Broncos host BYU on Thursday night and play road games at Wyoming?on Oct. 29 and at Air Force on Nov. 25. Plus, the Broncos might have to face San Diego State in the MWC championship game.ESPNs Football Power Index gives No. 20 Western Michigan?the best chance among FBS teams to enter the bowl games undefeated. The Broncos most difficult remaining games -- against Eastern Michigan?(yeah, you read that correctly) and Toledo?-- will be played at home. WMU will probably play Akron?or Ohio?in the MAC championship game. Im betting the Broncos will finish undefeated and finish as the highest-rated Group of 5 champion after Houston finishes second behind Navy in the AAC East and Boise State loses at least once.12. Clay Helton wont have the hottest seat in Los AngelesAfter a horrific start, which included a 46-point loss to Alabama?in the opener, it seemed as if Helton might not make it through his first full season as USCs?coach. Since switching to freshman quarterback?Sam Darnold, the Trojans have won three of four games and are?suddenly the hottest team in the Pac-12 South.While USC seems to be getting better every week, crosstown rival UCLA?seems to be getting worse. The Bruins have dropped three of their past four games, and the bleeding probably wont stop unless quarterback Josh Rosen returns from injury soon. Even with Rosen, UCLAs offense hasnt been nearly as potent without former coordinator Noel Mazzone, who left for Texas A&M after the 2015 season. If UCLA doesnt turn things around, coach Jim Mora might be under a lot of pressure to win in 2017.13. All three Michigan directional schools will go bowling (and Michigan State wont)Western Michigan wont be the only directional school from the Great Lakes State to play in the postseason. Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan are both 5-2 and seemingly on the way to the postseason. Like the Broncos, the Chippewas would be playing in their third consecutive bowl game. But the Eagles only previous postseason appearance was in 1987. The three Directional U programs have never played in a bowl game in the same season.Western Michigans P.J. Fleck, who seems to be in line for the Purdue job or another Power 5 opening, isnt the only rising star in the MAC. At 53, Central Michigans John Bonamego probably wont be leaving his alma mater anytime soon. But Eastern Michigans Chris Creighton, who built winners at Wabash College in Indiana and Drake University in Iowa, might be a coach to keep an eye on.14. Lane Kiffin will get a head-coaching jobIn three seasons as Alabamas offensive coordinator, Kiffin has transformed himself from being college footballs biggest villain to one of its greatest offensive minds. He might be doing his best work this season with Hurts starting at quarterback. The Crimson Tide are averaging 504.7 yards, 7 yards per play and 45.4 points per game. Hurts has eclipsed 100 yards rushing twice this season, which is something no Alabama quarterback under Saban had ever done.Kiffin went 7-6 in his only season as Tennessees coach in 2009 and 28-15 in three-plus seasons at USC. His record as a head coach wasnt spectacular, but he wasnt exactly a failure, either. He has spent the past three seasons largely in the background, running the offense and learning how to operate a program under Saban. Kiffin might not be at the top of the list for Power 5 jobs such as Baylor or LSU, but he might be in play at Group of 5 programs such as Houston (if Herman leaves) or USF (if Willie Taggart lands another job).Kiffin cant be choosy. He has done an admirable job rehabilitating his image, and he might have to be willing to take a springboard job to a bigger program to prove how much he has?matured.15. Whats happening at Oregon? Your guess is as good as mine.It was only two years ago that Mark Helfrich guided Oregon?to the College Football Playoff; the Ducks crushed Florida State?59-20 in a semifinal at the Rose Bowl and lost to Ohio State?42-20 in the CFP National Championship. Oregon went 9-4 last season, but what is mostly remembered is its second-half collapse in the Alamo Bowl, in which the Ducks blew a 31-point lead in a 47-41 loss to TCU in three overtimes.This season, the Ducks are 2-4 and have lost four straight games going into Friday nights trip to California. Theyve been historically bad on defense, allowing 121 points in their past two losses against Washington State?and Washington. Theres no easy fix and theres no guarantee Oregon will win again this season.Helfrich is an Oregon native who is largely well-liked. He was Chip Kellys offensive coordinator and seemed like a logical replacement when Kelly left for the NFL. But many Ducks fans are beginning to wonder whether Helfrich is their version of Frank Solich, the former Nebraska?assistant who was promoted to head coach after legendary Cornhuskers coach Tom Osborne retired following the 1997 season. For many Nebraska fans, Solich was regarded as a great assistant and mediocre head coach.As Oregons brass ponders what to do with Helfrich, Solich should serve as a cautionary tale. He guided the Cornhuskers to three seasons with double-digit wins and won nine games in two other seasons from 1998 to 2003. After Solich was fired, Nebraska didnt win 10 games again until 2009. Ryan Bertrand Jersey .com) - Richie Incognito has reportedly been admitted to a psychiatric care unit in Arizona. Lewis Cook Jersey . "I wrote 36 on my sheet at the beginning of the game," the Cincinnati coach said, referring the yard line the ball would need to be snapped from. http://www.englandsoccerpro.com/Harry-Kane-England-Jersey/ . -- Claudio Bieler hadnt scored since early September, and not from the run of play since mid-July. Eric Dier Jersey . The Lightning are 2-0 so far on a four-game road trip, giving the club five straight wins as the guest and improving Tampas away record this season to 11-8-2. Cheap England Soccers . There are some early surprises in the race for the Hart Trophy, but two of the contenders are the leagues biggest stars over the past decade. There are many more players in contention for the awards than just the three that Ive named, and a good or bad week can easily alter the landscape, but through the first 20 or so games of the NHL season, this is how the awards races look to me. Its time for our last big preseason tradition: plopping all 30 teams into tiers to snapshot their place in the league hierarchy at this precious moment when everyone is 0-0.These are not strict power rankings, and the order within each bucket doesnt necessarily matter. At least a half-dozen teams could slide up or down a tier, or even across three; the gooey center of the NBA is unusually muddled.TRILOGY PARTICIPANTSGolden State WarriorsCleveland CavaliersWeve never seen an NBA Finals trilogy, but as things stand today, any other outcome would be shocking.What LeBron did to Golden State last June should give pause to anyone anointing this four-headed super team. His performances while facing elimination in Games 5 and 6 -- a combined 82 points, 29 rebounds, 16 assists, and six aura-shattering blocks -- stand as the greatest back-to-back in Finals history. He imagined a way to beat this specific opponent, and then made it happen.He dragged Stephen Curry through an obstacle course of pick-and-rolls until he cracked just enough room for something -- a thundering drive, those dripping soft lobs to Tristan Thompson, cross-court lasers to spot-up shooters. He hounded Draymond Green on defense, switched onto Curry, and vaporized the Curry-Green pick-and-roll that had been the launchpad to a thousand open 3-pointers.By Game 5, the Cavaliers understood the enormity of the Golden State challenge -- how one half-second of miscommunication on defense could undo 20 seconds of excellence, and how severely the yappy, grinning Warriors would punish tiny errors. The Cavs had played hard before then, but they had not pushed themselves beyond that, and into the haze of total mental and physical exhaustion. They know now what it takes to beat this juggernaut. They know they can summon it, because they already did.The Warriors, of course, underwent some minor renovations over the summer. Kevin Durant takes Harrison Barnes place in the vaunted Death Lineup, erasing one of the two spots where opponents -- including Cleveland when Kevin Love played -- would hide their big men. If both Tristan Thompson and Love are on the floor against that group, one of them will guard Andre Iguodala. Whos the other one guarding?Playing two traditional bigs against this lineup will be much harder than it was against Version 1.0. Good thing the Cavs cinched up their wing depth by adding Mike Dunleavy Jr. and ending their staring contest with J.R. Smith. Still: Keep an eye on Iman Shumpert. Several teams, including Minnesota, have inquired about his availability in the past few weeks and gotten the impression Cleveland is ready to talk, according to several league sources. The Cavs wont salary-dump Shump for nothing, but given their tax situation, cutting payroll by a few million promises exponential savings.The Cavs need Shumpert, or at least the fully realized version of a player like him, to scamper and switch with Golden States small lineups. Without him, they risk overtaxing Dunleavy, Richard Jefferson, and their extra bigs.Its easy to suggest opponents defending the Death Lineup simply ignore Green and Iguodala - that any shot from one of them is a victory. But ignoring them means giving up wide-open driving lanes, and suddenly youre faced with a choice: concede a layup, or send help from Curry, Durant or Klay Thompson. You cant script a plan that helps only off Golden States weaker players, and allows them only jumpers.Durant gives them too many options -- new switchproof pick-and-roll combinations with Curry, and old-school throw it to the third-best player in the NBA on the block dump-ins when a hyperalert defense smothers Golden States prettier stuff.When it counts, the Warriors will play this super-small group even more than they did the original. It should be better on both ends, with an uptick in rim protection; Durant is 7-feet tall, and blocked more shots last season than Barnes has in his career. It is unclear how you even begin to defend it. The looks Golden State has generated out of it in the preseason have been almost laughable.Yeah, they have some issues. Zaza Pachulia is learning the ropes, and the depth beyond the top seven is unproven. JaVale McGee ruins everything. Theres a non-zero chance a vengeful Sam Presti is paying him to sabotage the Warriors. On some nights, Golden State will go cold from deep. Give Cleveland two of those nights in June, and they have a chance.But Pachulia will catch on; we are only eight months from his achieving hero status for stabilizing the rag-tag Mavs. Someone on the bench will pop. And when the Warriors put their five best guys on the floor, they turn the game into a math problem almost no one can solve.AINT NEVER GONNA GIVE UPLos Angeles ClippersIf Blake Griffin can be the best player in the world for two weeks, the Clippers are the only Western Conference team with the explosiveness and precision to challenge Golden State in the playoffs. We saw this Griffin during the first round against San Antonio two years ago. He laid waste in the post, directed fast breaks, and emptied the tank on both ends over 41 minutes per game.Hell have to switch across five positions, pressure ace 3-point shooters, rush back inside to control the glass, and then bully Golden States only weak spot on the other end. DeAndre Jordan will have to do the same. Together, they have a vertical brutality the Warriors cant match.The Clippers just havent maintained integrity over enough full defensive possessions in all those demoralizing losses to Golden State. Jordan or Griffin will nail the first switch, trail their new guy for three seconds, and then botch Golden States next screening action -- leaving a fatal pocket of airspace.Over 19 games across the past three seasons, the Warriors have blitzed L.A. for about 109 points per 100 possessions on 40 percent shooting from deep.You cant hit every dance step against the Warriors; they put you through too damned many. But the Clippers must hit more to overcome their structural disadvantages -- a hole at small forward, and a lack of size along the perimeter. Chris Paul isnt quite 6-0, and J.J. Redicks arms are short; they can do only so much when they switch onto Durant or Green. (The occasional Paul-Green battle on the block presents some tense, tangled violence, and the possibility of simultaneous groin shots.)Hell, Klay Thompson is comfortable going right at, and over, Redick. Jamal Crawford may not be able to play real minutes in this matchup; the Warriors offense bamboozles him. Austin Rivers could play more, including in three-guard lineups with Paul and Redick -- a setup in which Griffin may have to guard Durant straight-up against certain Golden State groups. They might need Wesley Johnson, and needing Wesley Johnson has never turned out well for anyone.The Clippers are probably a guy short -- and maybe two. This group hasnt made it beyond the second round. Their collapse against Houston remains inexplicable, even two years later. But at full throttle, they are awesome, and Griffin has another level still in him.BEST OF THE RESTSan Antonio SpursIts cool if you want them in a higher tier. They posted a beefier scoring margin than the 73-win Warriors, after all. Theyll win 55 games, and Kawhi Leonard has a realistic shot at the MVP-Defensive Player of the Year double dip. Just throwing a simple post entry pass around Leonard is like playing Operation, complete with hand trembling from anxiety.At least one or two of the younger bench guys will gain Gregg Popovichs full trust, allowing him to cut Pau Gasols minutes against Golden State -- just as he did with another aging legend last season. They are ultra-long around the basket, and should remain a top-three defense. Gasol and Aldridge will drag both opposing big men 20 feet from the rim, rain long jumpers, and pick out cutters all over the floor.They just feel light on the zip factor. Some of that is by design; they want to slow the pace, back you down on the block, and exploit the midrange area everyone ignores. They are tailor-made, in theory, to play tall-ball against the Warriors smaller lineups.But a lot of those post-ups will result in tough floaters and turnarounds; Green is an unmovable cinder block, and Durant is long enough to challenge everything. Contested midrange looks only get you so far against elite defenses. When that shot clock dwindles, you need a guy who can get buckets from nothing -- a high-flier with some off-the-bounce skills, a pick-and-roll ace, or some pogo-stick to cram lobs and put-back dunks. You need to survive for five or six minutes on transition points and free throws.The Clippers have more of that volatility than the Spurs -- especially on nights when Tony Parker looks his age.Boston CelticsThe clock is quietly ticking. Cheapo deals for Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas expire after next season. If Boston lands their big fish before then, theyll pay what it takes to keep them -- assuming at least one remains after the Great Theoretical Celtics Megatrade. If the Cs cant find their match, they face a dilemma: Pay those guys something like $50 million combined annually and lock into a team that might top out at 50-ish wins, or deal one of them at next seasons deadline -- if not before. Remember: Both are blocking younger lottery picks.Lots can happen between now and February 2018. This Boston team could exceed expectations, or hover around 48 wins; the Celtics seem quietly confident they could push the Cavs this season if a few breaks fall their way. LeBron could finally age (ha, ha). The new collective bargaining deal will probably make it easier for players to sign contract extensions, a change that could pump up trade value for Thomas and Bradley even as their deals approach expiration; teams that nab them would have an easier time extending them on the spot.If the Celtics conclude this seasons team cant make real playoff noise, Bradley becomes a sneaky interesting trade piece even though Danny Ainge loves him. (Thomas is indispensable; Boston has no one else who can skitter into the teeth of enemy defenses.)But Boston should make playoff noise. They had the scoring margin of a 50-win team last season. Al Horford reanimates every limb of an offense that suffocated amid cramped spacing. Hes a better shooter than every other Boston big, save Kelly Olynyk, and by far the most well-rounded pick-and-roll option of the Brad Stevens era -- key for a team that ranked an ugly 27th in points per possession on plays their screeners finished with a shot, turnover, or drawn foul, per Synergy Sports.Boston should also do better from deep than the dreadful 33.5 percent it hit last season. The Celtics nailed just 34 percent from the corners, fourth-worst in the league; Marcus Smart shot an unthinkable 20 percent on those short triples, and Bradley dipped to 33 percent -- an outlier for him.Toss in a defense that should be among the three or four stingiest, and Boston starts in a dead heat with Toronto for the No. 2 seed.Toronto RaptorsThere is a lot of hand-wringing over the departure of a center who can barely catch a basketball. Bismack Biyombo was great for the Raptors, and durable, but he also benefited from playing on hybrid reserve units with Kyle Lowry and Patrick Patterson -- Torontos best traditional power forward.Slide this seasons backup center -- Jared Sullinger, Bebe Nogueira, one of the rookies -- into that same template, and the Raptors will do fine. Jonas Valanciunas is ready for more, anyway, and with DeMarre Carroll healthy, Toronto will finally explore some explosive lineups. The group of Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Carroll, Patterson, and Valanciunas, for instance, logged just 16 minutes all of last season.Slide Carroll to power forward, and Toronto might discover switchy lineups that make up for shaky rim protection on the back line by preventing anyone from driving there in the first place. Norman Norm Powell could help unlock some of those groups.Toronto might slip a hair on defense, and theyll feel Biyombos absence on the boards now and then. But these guys have enough talent and shared corporate knowledge to coast by teams that spend the first 40 games getting to know each other. Love the Drakes.ROCK SOLID PLAYOFF TEAMSIndiana PacersIndy traded some defense (and maybe some rebounding) to juice a moribund offense, but they didnt add enough shooting in the bargain to open space for all their slasher types. The roster may add up to exactly the sum of its parts.And thats fine. The Pacers have enough talent to hit the No. 4 range even if the players dont complement each other in the magical way that lifts a team to a higher plane. They have Paul George, a surefire top-10 overall player. Paul George is a boss. Myles Turner will grow into his new last-line-of-defense responsibility faster than a typical 20-year-old. The fortified bench should hold steady after last seasons version almost single-handedly blew Indys first-round series against Toronto.Portland Trail BlazersThere is a ton of skepticism around the league about Portland. The Blazers enjoyed near-perfect health last season, and slid into an unexpected power vacuum when Utah, New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento, and Houston imploded. They ranked an ugly 21st in points allowed per possession, and played above-.500 ball only during a sizzling midseason jaunt against mostly bad teams.But watch the Blazers, and you see a mature team comfortable in its own skin -- and primed for the kind of organic improvement that comes when young teammates marinate together. Theyre well-versed in Terry Stotts read-and-react offense, and they should come out of the gate a bit better on defense now that theyre starting Al-Farouq Aminu at power forward. That lineup fouled at a low rate, crucial for the Blazers, who spent most of the season hacking the bejesus out of everyone. The smaller, switchier group is just better at keeping the ball in front of them.That will still be a challenge for Portland in reserve lineups unless Stotts really shrinks the rotation; Meyers Leonard, Festus Ezeli, and Ed Davis are all basically centers, and the Blazers will have trouble chasing smaller opponents when any two of them play together.Cut the hacks, and Portland has the foundation of sturdy defense. They entice a ton of midrangers, and shut off both the restricted area and those juicy corner 3s. Opponents shot a preposterous 42.5 percent on the few wide-open 3s they managed, per tracking data provided to ESPN.com, and if sheer randomness pushes that number down, the Blazers could at least hit league-average on defense.Houston RocketsThe only question that matters -- and one that got a little more pressing with the news from our Calvin Watkins that Patrick Beverley may need knee surgery: Just how bad is Houstons defense going to be?There is a lot of evidence that an elite defense is a slightly more powerful predictor of championship contention than an elite offense, and the same may be true on the downside. Only seven teams that fell into the bottom five in points allowed per possession made the playoffs over the past 20 seasons, according to data compiled by ESPN Stats & Information. Those teams ranked about third on average in offensive efficiency.The prognosis gets better if you are merely not terrible; a full 32 teams, about 1.5 per season season, squeaked into the playoffs with bottom-10 defenses. Meanwhile, a bunch more -- 42 -- got in despite bottom-10 offenses over that same 20-year stretch.Houston is going to score the hell out of the ball. If they stay healthy and trudge closer to 20th in overall defense, they should win enough games -- something in the high-40s -- to secure a spot. Thats not easy for any team featuring Ryan Anderson, an unhidable saboteur, and it definitely wont be easy if Houston gets the comatose version of James Harden and Eric Gordon. Some of these guys have scary injury histories.But Harden is in shape, and the Rockets have enough solid defenders -- including two centers -- to achieve some minimum level of competence. Having perhaps the second-best offense in the league will help; its easier to set your defense and get stops after a bucket -- or even better, a free throw.Oklahoma City ThunderIt isnt going to be pretty. The Thunder are poor on shooting, and they just dont have the personnel to whip the ball around in artful passing sequences that build to an orgasmic crescendo. Their offense post-Durant is a straight-ahead battering ram heading toward walls of defenders.And on a lot of nights, they will run right through those freaking walls. You think Russell Westbrook is worried about those three defenders waiting at the dotted line? When he misses at the rim, the leagues best offensive rebounding team is ready to pounce.The Thunder no longer have the luxury of taking nights off on defense, but they have the goods to play into late April.Utah JazzIm already (gulp) on record calling a 50-win season.BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT PLAYOFF TEAMSDetroit PistonsDetroit was ensconced in the solid playoff tier before Reggie Jacksons knee problems ahead of a packed early schedule. Analytics gurus at other teams have mocked my freaking out about Jackson missing perhaps a quarter of the season; they project the injury might cost Detroit just one or two wins.Theyre probably right. But the Jackson-Andre Drummond spread pick-and-roll literally is Detroits offense. They can try to mimic it with Ish Smith, but his jumper is busted; defenders will duck 10 feet under Drummonds picks to cut off Smiths roadrunner drives.Stan Van Gundy has antidotes; Drummond will set two or three screens in a row so that Smith can play hide-and-seek, and set some picks below the foul line -- so Smith is already in range for his delightfully loopy floater. Smart defenses with their feet set will navigate all that on a lot of possessions, and stall out Detroits offense. Help defenders will flood the paint from every direction until Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, and Tobias Harris prove consistent from deep.Van Gundy has talked about diversifying in Jacksons absence, and both Morris and Harris can soak up some creative duties. Drummond has honed his righty hook and passing chops to the point that throwing it to him on the block isnt an awful option. The bench should be better than last seasons sinkhole.The margin for error is small without Jackson. Drummond is still learning to protect the paint, and Detroitts defense suffered after it slid Harris into a small-ish starting lineup.ddddddddddddBut roster continuity and Van Gundy are a powerful combination. The young guys will improve, and Van Gundy will have them dialed in each night.Charlotte HornetsThis teams offense is at risk, especially if Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams arent ready for the start of the season. Zeller is a grunt guy you barely notice, but hes a turbo screening machine on and off the ball, and speed matters to a team without anyone who can just go and get buckets. Help defenders zip inside to bump Zeller rolling to the rim, and Charlotte flits through the little corridors that initial rotation pries open.Those pathways hold oxygen for their side-to-side, drive-and-kick attack. Close them a beat earlier, and you can suffocate their offense. Roy Hibbert doesnt arrive in the lane as quickly as Zeller, or present the same threat level once he gets there.As is, Charlotte generated the lowest share of corner 3s in the league last season; Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum handle the ball high on the wings, and they need Williams, the only other reliable long-range gunner among the starters, to set picks for them. The bench feels a little less reliable, and overstocked with big men. Opponents shot just 36 percent on wide-open 3s last season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league, and a variable that could flip the other way.But every damn night, you can count on Steve Clifford team to clean the defensive glass, shut down the opposing transition game, avoid fouls, and force a ton of midrange jumpers. They basically start every game up 4-0.Atlanta HawksIve written and talked a lot about these guys already. We know the questions, and Tiago Splitter is already injured. But Atlanta has top-level talent, and a coach, Mike Budenholzer, who maximizes his roster. One of the rookies will skip a grade at the Budenholzer University For Project Wings, and the Hawks are high on Malcolm Delaney as Dennis Schroders backup.My gut says one of these three misses the playoffs. I just cant decide which one, so for now, I have them all getting in.PRIME CONTENDERS FOR NO. 8: WESTDallas MavericksMemphis GrizzliesI already predicted both these stalwarts would miss the playoffs. I dont feel great about myself.Denver NuggetsNew Orleans PelicansMinnesota TimberwolvesThat leaves one spot for three teams that could all range between 35 and 43 wins. If we knew Jrue Holiday would return within, say, the first month of the season, the Pelicans would have a leg up. They have the player with the highest ceiling for this season -- yes, a hair ahead of Karl-Anthony Towns -- and an interesting group of wings to surround him in lineups big and small. If they disappoint again, Alvin Gentrys job could be in jeopardy.The Wolves return a starting lineup that poured in 113.5 points per 100 possessions last season -- better than Golden States league-best mark. That lineup was horrific defensively, but Tom Thibodeau will at least get them into the right spots on every possession. Being a year older will help everyone. The bench is shaky, especially on the wing, and its unclear if Kris Dunn is ready to run an NBA offense.Denver is young, deep, and healthy. All three of Danilo Gallinari, Nikola Jokic, and Jusuf Nurkic can initiate the offense, easing the burden on Emmanuel Mudiay. But Mudiay is still 20, with so much to learn, and the Jokic-Nurkic combo has to prove it can survive on defense.Right now, Id lean slightly toward Minnesota for the No. 8 spot, pending a definitive return date for Holiday.PRIME CONTENDERS FOR NO. 8: EASTMilwaukee BucksMy pick for the No. 8 seed before Khris Middletons devastating hamstring tear. Milwaukees bottom-10 offense didnt improve a lick after it moved Giannis Antetokounmpo to point forward, but it was onto something. The Bucks became uncomfortable to play against. They imposed awkwardness.If Antetokounmpo defended a power forward and the Bucks got a stop, that poor sap was stuck guarding a combination of The Flash and Rubber Man running a pick-and-roll in semi-transition. Switch a little guy onto Antetokounmpo to snuff that emergency, and Greek Freak would bum-rush that dude onto the block for a limbsy post-up.Milwaukee had zero spacing even with Middleton healthy, but they were smart slipping through the little crevices they could open:Parker is a gifted, rampaging slasher. Antetokounmpo and Greg Monroe are slick high-post passers. (By the way: Milwaukee is already preparing for the possibility Monroe opts into his deal for 2017-18, league sources say.) The Bucks knew defenses would adjust to a steady diet of Antetokounmpo pick-and-rolls, so they mixed things up. Antetokounmpo would start some possessions in the corner or at the elbow, and sometimes act as the screener in the pick-and-roll -- an inversion that confused defenses.He is comfortable driving from anywhere, even against defenders hanging 10 feet off of him, and long enough with those go-go-gadget arms to thread wraparound passes at weirdo angles. He can grab-and-go after rebounds, and the Bucks would be smart to let him loose in transition.Antetokounmpo developed a nice lob chemistry with Miles Plumlee, and their defense -- a mess all season -- improved once Plumlee replaced Monroe in the starting lineup.Milwaukee looked ripe for a bounceback. And then disaster struck Middleton, its best all-around player last season. Milwaukee needs two dangerous 3-point shooters around the Antetokounmpo/Parker/Plumlee trio, and its harder for them to get there now without compromising other elements.Tony Snell has untapped potential, but hes not in Middletons universe as a 3-point bomber and secondary playmaker. (I was kind of excited to see how Michael Carter-Williams would fare as an offensive focal point when Antetokounmpo rested.) Parker is clueless away from the ball on defense, and the Bucks need a major renovation on that end now that the league has figured out Kidds helter-skelter pressure scheme; only three teams allowed more wide-open 3s last season, per NBA.com, and opponents lived in the restricted area.Washington WizardsMy backup pick for the No. 8 seed until news broke that Ian Mahinmi, Washingtons prized free agent acquisition in the Busted Summer of #KDtoDC, had surgery to repair a torn meniscus. Ugh. Can something go right for these guys?Fortunately, the Wizards are loaded with centers behind Marcin Gortat. John Wall is reaching peak speed after two knee surgeries, and the Wiz are confident they can keep Bradley Beal healthy by more carefully monitoring his minutes and off-day work.Scott Brooks wont repeat Randy Wittmans mistake of rushing into a go-go, fast-breaking style for which a creaky roster was unprepared. Morale will improve. Some non-public SportVU numbers show Wiz opponents had the biggest positive gap between the field-goal percentage wed expect given the quality of their shots, and their actual field-goal percentage -- i.e., that Washington suffered some bad