Joe Haeg Jersey , 2018 the Indianapolis Colts will host the New York Giants. In this Week 16 match-up I sought to understand our opponent and get a better idea of how they may attack our surging Colts.The Colts have lost to the Giants once in the past twenty (20) years, that loss coming in 2002. Prior to that the Colts hadn’t lost to the often talked about G-Men since 1993 and going back to 1968 (not a typo, the Vietnam War was being waged) our Colts are 8-3 against these Giants. Unfortunately for us, history has nothing to do with the game on Sunday, unless you consider Eli Manning’s career, as the best of it is far in the past.Let’s figure out what we can expect in Week 16.DefensePrior to this year the New York Giants had used a base 4-3 defense since 1993. Twenty-five years later the Giants decided it was time to make the switch to a 3-4, bringing in Indiana native, James Bettcher to be their defensive coordinator. Bettcher started his NFL coaching career in Indianapolis back in 2012. When Bruce Arians accepted his head coaching position in Arizona he poached Bettcher to coach the Cardinals outside linebackers. By 2015 Bettcher had become the Cardinals defensive coordinator. Upon Arians retirement, Bettcher needed a job when the Giants came calling. In doing research on Bettcher’s defense, once again, I went over to Cover1.net and found the work of Nick Turchyn. Turchyn has written at great length about Bettcher’s defense and I’m not even going to try to sample bits and pieces and try to make it all make sense. Instead I’m going to lead a horse (that’s you) to water and if the horse wants to drink, I will have given it ever chance to. James Bettcher’s blitzing Part 1James Bettcher’s blitzing Part 2James Bettcher’s use of cover 3 robberHow James Bettcher used various coverages against George KittleHere’s the $0.10 tour of those articles: James Bettcher likes to blitz. He brings pressure from both man and zone looks and he likes to blitz his defensive backs. At their core they are a quarters coverage (cover 4) team but they use man to man, pattern matching and various versions of his cover 3 robber. The Giants give up a lot of receptions in the short middle of the field to running backs and wide receivers but have done a decent job scheming to keep tight ends in check. The Giants also struggle against play action passes. Giving up a high amount of yards per play against play action. With that said they don’t give up a ton of deep passes. They limit explosive plays despite the fact they’re giving up a lot of yards and are in the bottom third of the league in points against. This Giants defense isn’t great but James Bettcher has been able to maximize the talent he does have on the roster. Bettcher will no doubt do all he can to try and limit our Colts offense. If he has any chance of doing that he’s going to need to spend a lot of time figuring out how he thinks his team might do that. Defensive Line The Giants are giving up a lot of rushing yards this year and the defensive line deserves some of the blame. B.J. Hill, a rookie DT/DE out of N.C. State, has played very well for a third round rookie. Dalvin Tomlinson has also played well. Defensive end Josh Mauro spent the first four games of the season suspended for performance enhancing drug usage. Since his return he has split time with Kerry Wynn. Neither man has been great and Wynn is currently out with an injured thumb, so it’s unknown if he will be able to play come Sunday. For a fraction of a second there was a massive hole for the running back to hit. No one played their assignments well and no one defeated their blocks effectively. This was a nice cut by Josh Adams but had the Giants defenders done their jobs, there would have never been a cutback lane to begin.Like the articles I linked above pointed out, runs to the outside have been largely successful against this Giants front. Though they mentioned outside zone runs specifically, maintaining gap assignments while moving laterally is difficult, this gap scheme run was successful despite Landon Collins’ best effort. Collins is injured and won’t be a factor on Sunday which will only help the Colts ability to run the ball in this must win game. Even still defending the edges seems to be a problem for the Giants and I fully expect Marlon Mack to have a big day. Here the Bears caught the Giants being aggressive with the blitz but more than that the offensive line completely nullified the effort of the Giants defensive line, driving them down, away from where the ball is designed to go. Once Jordan Howard saw the edge exposed, he ran to freedom. This Giants defensive line does have some talent but as of right now they have yet to come together as a unit and are a part of a defense giving up more than 128 yards per game on the ground. LinebackersThe names you need to know here are Alec Ogletree, B.J. Goodson, Oliver Vernon, Kareem Martin and you may remember Lorenzo Carter from last years draft. Alec Ogletree would lineup at inside linebacker but he is struggling to come back from a concussion in time to play in the game. B.J. Goodson will slide over in his place. Goodson is a solid tackler and will look to match wits with Andrew Luck. Oliver Vernon should be considered a hero to all future NFL free agents. He parlayed a single 10+ sack season into a 5 year, $85 million deal with the Giants. He hasn’t come close to that number in five years. With that said he does consistently get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Kareem Martin and Lorenzo Carter will each see time at the other outside linebacker position. Neither man is particularly good at this point in their careers. Alec Ogletree has four interceptions on the year. They’ve all come against backup quarterbacks. One thing I’ve noticed is the aggressiveness the Giants defense has shown. Often Ogletree was sent on a blitz, rarely did it work this well. Their strategy may shift with B.J. Goodson filling in.I do expect to see delayed blitzes round the right side, like this one, to test Braden Smith. Ryan Kelly’s ability to identify these things pre-snap will be huge. Also, I didn’t mean to make this an Alec Ogletree highlight reel, but here we are.Here Ogletree was able to knife through the line and make a stop. Rookie Tae Davis wasn’t far behind and with Ogletree’s injury, Davis, an undrafted rookie free agent, should expect to see more time, which will likely help the Colts in both the run and pass. The Giants don’t have a ton of talent on defense. They have some solid pieces if they continue to add talent in the future, but there’s a reason they’re near the bottom of the league in every major defensive category. Defensive BacksJanoris Jenkins, B.W. Webb, Grant Haley, Sean Chandler, Curtis Riley and Michael Thomas are the names to know. You may know Janoris Jenkins as the NFL player with a dead body in his basement, but he also plays cornerback for the New York Giants. Jenkins hasn’t played up to the contract he was given but he is a starting level corner. B.W. Webb will start at the other cornerback spot. Webb isn’t a bad player, but he probably shouldn’t be starting. Grant Haley was called up from the practice squad in October and has since become their starting slot corner and has played well in that role. Curtis Riley is a safety. Curtis Riley is not good at NFL football. We should all be thankful he will be on the field this Sunday. Michael Thomas, no not the one who catches a lot of passes from Drew Brees, this Michael Thomas plays safety for these Giants. Thomas is the Giants nominee for the Walter Payton man of the year award. To go along with his solid off the field work, Thomas has played well.Sean Chandler is a UDFA safety out of Temple who has played in a very limited role, which doesn’t make a ton of sense to me given how bad Riley has looked. As a Colts fan, I’m happy to be confused for at least another week. Janoris Jenkins has the ability to be a very good corner but his play is inconsistent. When he is at his best he is capable of playing like a CB1. If this would have been a starting quarterback, this would have been six points. The DB gets roasted off the line and only recovers once the ball is badly under-thrown. If you notice at the bottom of the screen, Chicago Bears tight end Trey Burton is left alone near the sideline. Granted Burton wasn’t likely to be an option given the number of reads the QB would have had to make to get to him. The point stands two receivers were wide open on this play. Mark Sanchez absolutely gift-wrapped this pick-6 and donated it to the Giants. It was less of a good defensive play and more about how bad Mark Sanchez is at football. Even still, the Giants made the play and scored the six. All in all, I’m not afraid of this group of defensive backs. Even their best healthy player, Janoris Jenkins, isn’t a guy that I think Andrew Luck should avoid. The Colts have seen better secondary groups in most of the games they’ve played this year. Final Thoughts:With Landon Collins out, the Giants have very little help from the third level of the defense to aid in the run game. Given what we know about the defensive line and linebacking corps, they’re not going to stop the run at all. The only way I expect this defense to be able to limit the Colts offense is simply if the Colts and the lack of talent at their skill positions rear their ugly head. I truly do not believe there is anyway the Giants can stop the Colts offense unless there are many self inflicted mistakes from an offense that isn’t prone to making a lot of mistakes. Background InformationThe NFL market seems to be developing faster than ever, mostly due to the fact that the NFL’s TV deal reels in $255 million for each team John Simon Color Rush Jersey , annually. This is in addition to..." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesStampede Blue homepageHorizontal - WhiteStampede Bluean Indianapolis Colts communityFollow Stampede Blue online:Follow Stampede Blue on TwitterFollow Stampede Blue on FacebookLog in or sign upLog InSign UpSite searchSearchSearchStampede Blue main menuFanpostsFanshotsColtsShopAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 321 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Colts StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Colts NewsYahoo Colts Team PageYahoo Colts ReportYahoo Colts Depth ChartYahoo Colts TransactionsYahoo Colts PhotosShop About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub ✕Breaking NewsAndrew Luck Retires×Study on the QB market New,37commentsEDT@AlvaroSBNationShare this storyShare this on FacebookShare this on TwitterShareAll sharing optionsShareAll sharing options for:Study on the QB market TwitterFacebookRedditPocketFlipboardEmailBackground InformationThe NFL market seems to be developing faster than ever, mostly due to the fact that the NFL’s TV deal reels in $255 million for each team, annually. This is in addition to ticket, jersey and parking sales. So, all things considered, money seems not to be a problem for NFL teams.What seems to be the problem nowadays is how that money is allocated throughout the team, especially regarding the QB position. As the most important position in sports, teams tend to latch onto a good QB, since they only seem to come every once in a blue moon.OK, this is when the math starts to get intense. First of all, I want you guys to get a grasp of how rapidly the money in the NFL is increasing. The blue line is the year-to-year salary cap (per team), going from 2011 to 2019. The red line, on the other hand, represents the standard inflation (3.9%) from 2011 salary cap of $120 million. So, clearly, there seems to be a growing amount of capital in the NFL, most of which goes either to the players (47%) or into the owners pockets (53%).Now, of this new money that is being generated, a lot of it is going to QBs. No surprise there. The fascinating thing is how much is truly going into the position. For example, Rodgers will make $66.9 million dollars in 2018 (due to the signing bonus in his new deal), while in 2000, the salary cap per team was only $62.172 million. That means in 2000, Rodgers would require 107.6% of a team’s salary cap. Now, to have a truly strong argument, you’d have to take the opposition’s strongest point and prove it wrong. In this case, that’s the idea that NFL QB salaries actually comprise the same amount of the cap, percentage wise, and as the salary cap grows, so do the QB’s salaries. This is, in fact, correct, and I ran my own statistical calculations that prove so, as you can see below. In 1994, QBs, on average, commanded 6.9% of the cap. Now, looking at the graph, you can tell that from 2013-2019, that percentage has stayed around the 7-9% range, with 2019 being the highest point at 10.26%. What most league-wide analysts forget to tell you is that the rookie salaries are very heavily skewing the data. In reality, if you are paying a QB after their rookie deal, it’s going to cost you. A lot.Let’s take a look at 2013. As you can see below, the teams that spend most of their money on the QB position have elite, veteran players, while those who don’t spend as much tend to have either “bridge” QBs or rookies. Now, the league average QB salary in 2013 was $9.8 million. If you take out the rookie contracts, what is that average? $14.5 million. Let’s do the same thing for 2019. The league average is now $19.3 million allotted to the QB position on average. One thing we notice, however, is that “bridge” QBs or serviceable QBs (those around the 18-28 range), have become much more expensive. However, we will talk about that later. One important factor that people will bring up is that, while the average QB salary had gone up $10 million dollars in just 6 years, the percentage of cap money spent on QBs in 2019 (10.26%) is not that much more than that spent on 2013 (7.96%). But again, the rookies skew the data. Take out the rookies again, and what are you left with? An average of $25.93. For those keeping count at home, that’s an increase in salary of 178.83% from 2013 to 2019 while the cap only increased 153.01%.Finally https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Chester-Rogers-Jersey , as the QB market has developed, a new tier of QBs has arisen. There used to be the high paid elite QBs, the “bridge” QBs and the rookie QBs. However, as time progressed and salaries have gone up, a new, highly paid, rank which I call the “treading water” or “unsure” group has emerged. This are the QBs that franchises don’t really know if they have something or not ( the Mariotas, Garoppolos, Winstons, Bortles of the world). Furthermore, the stock in the “bridge” QB market has really skyrocketed, with Case Keenum, Alex Smith and the likes reeling in upwards of $20 million a year.<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="1nN3uZ">What does that mean for the Colts?The whole point of this article was for me to answer the question: How much are we going to have to pay Luck in 2022 when his contract is up? This is where the lines get blurry, the math gets ugly and the predictions are just rough estimations.First of all, it took the top 5 QB salaries from 2011-2019 to create a model that would display the QB yearly salary trends. This is where we meet our first fork in the road, because there are two schools of thought: The first states that the salary of QBs increases linearly, while the second states that the salary grows exponentially. I personally believe that QB salaries can be represented by a logistic graph; however, for the sake of this article, let’s say that it grows exponentially. My reason to believe that the top 5 salaries for NFL QBs are growing exponentially is the fact that between 2011-2016, the average salary of this “elite” tier of QBs was increasing linearly with an average annual increase of $1.35 million. From 2017-2019, what has that growth rate been? An annual increase of $3.93 million.So, taking the average of every top 5 earning NFL QB from 2011-2019, I devised their average income. And with these points I devised the equation 15.21144729*1.08198937^x where x represents how many years from 2010 (x=1 is 2011, x=2 is 2012, etc). The Colts signed Luck in 2016, which, in retrospect, was a genius move as it was right before the exponential curve starts to point upward.(This also show my model is pretty accurate. According to the model, Luck’s per year salary should be $24.407. In reality it was $24.594)Problem is that Luck is due to re-sign in the 2022 off-season, which would net him a yearly salary of $39.16 million. One can clearly see the risk involved in signing a 33 year old with an injury history to a deal this massive. I still think the Colts do it with very little hesitation, but it makes one think about who the team might be unable to resign because of it. Also, this is almost certainly the primary reason Ballard is saving up. In conclusion, while my graph is accurate for the 2011-2019 time period, who knows were things might go after this season? The big questions are, first, how will the CBA be renewed and will it make more money accessible for players? Next, it is rare to see TV deals regress as time goes on, but how much money will truly be pumped into the NFL when the new TV deal is signed?Another thing to take into account is that only 4 teams have ever won a SB when their QB accounts for more than 11% of the cap. So for Luck and his yearly salary of $39.16 million to be 11%, the cap would have to be $356 million (!). Last year it was $188.2 million.The main concern that Colts fans should have with, theoretically, giving Luck $39.16 million a year is that they may not have enough money to pay him. These are players that the Colts have to sign in the next few years:Ryan KellyAnthony CastonzoBraden SmithMarlon MackQuenton NelsonTY HiltonDarius LeonardMalik HookerQuincy WilsonAbout half of these players will demand top of the line money, so who knows how much will be left when Luck’s turn is up?The most important thing to take away from this article is that the QB market is expensive, unpredictable, and punishing. It’s important that the Colts keep doing what they’re doing, or they could be forced to make some untimely decisions.So, after researching all of this, my recommendation to Colts fans is:Hope Ballard keeps playing FA safe and saving up cashThe cap space consistently increasesSign Luck early, maybe in 2021, when, according to my model, he will only ask for $36.19 million a yearFinally, there were extra statistics, graphs and charts I was unable to integrate into this piece. So, in an attempt to keep those from going to waste, I’ll embed a tweet of mine with the link to a spreadsheet where I did most of the math.