With a defense and special teams both ranked in the middle of the pack, its clear that the Dallas Cowboys hopes this season rest with an offense that is ranked first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per game and EPA per snap. But Dallas is nearing a crossroads at the games most important position. Should they continue to ride rookie sensation Dak Prescott, or lean on veteran Tony Romo?when he returns? Its not as simple as saying, The team has gone 5-1 so far, so lets stick with him. The Cowboys coaches are obviously in the best position to understand each QBs abilities, but it might be wise to add some numbers to the discussion.Prescott has only six starts under his belt, so we dont have a long track record to examine. Theres little doubt hes talented, but when players start out very hot, its very difficult to sustain that level of performance. Usually, many favorable factors have combined to allow such a strong start, and those factors are far from assured to persist. Its not a guarantee, just a strong tendency known as reversion to the mean.To examine this further, I grouped all new starting QBs since 2001 into five quintiles (equally sized groups) according to how well their entire offenses did in their first six starts. Then I compared those performances with how each quintiles offenses did in their next 10 starts. The idea is to look at offenses as a whole, rather than just how the QB himself performs, for two reasons. Dallas has a lot of good pieces around Prescott, and those pieces and his own abilities complement each other. And overall offensive performance is also the thing the Cowboys care about the most -- theyre not in a fantasy league, after all.Prescott is in good company in the top quintile, which includes guys such as?Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger?and Cam Newton. But it also includes QBs who faded after hot starts, such as Tim Rattay, Aaron Brooks and Marc Bulger. Trevor Siemian and Carson Wentz, two other notable newcomers to the league, would currently fall into the second-best group.Each of the five quintiles regresses to the mean in a different way, and Prescotts Cowboys would fall into the top quintile that holds on to much of its high level of performance through the next 10 starts. We can expect the Dallas offense to regress similarly, in the manner reflected in the graph below.Accounting for that regression, Prescotts Cowboys can expect to average about .09 EPA per snap, which would still be excellent, about sixth or seventh in the league. For context, over a typical game of about 67 plays, .09 EPA per snap would translate into about +4 net points above the league average (.03 EPA per snap is the league average so far in 2016). But how does this compare with what we would expect from Romo?The Cowboys offensive production during Romos career averages .07 EPA per snap, or about +3 net points per game above average, slightly less than what we might expect with Prescott. But in his last 32 starts, Dallas has performed slightly better, at .09 EPA per snap, or about +4 net points above average per game.There are many considerations we havent accounted for, such as Romos age and associated injury concerns, Dez Bryants absence or presence, or opponent strength. But by seeing how top offenses tend to perform after hot starts under new QBs, we can get a rough approximation of what to expect through the rest of the regular season. The results of this exercise show that, analytically speaking, the Cowboys can feel justified going with either quarterback. Cheap Jordan 8 Shoes Free Shipping .C. at the helm of the top team in the Eastern Conference. His tenure as the GM in Vancouver was all too brief. 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COLLEGE PARK, Md. -- Maryland first-year coach DJ Durkin looked into the eyes of his players and saw a confidence that had been missing over the past couple of weeks.The Terrapins then took the field against Michigan State and had one of their most dominant performances.Perry Hills threw a pair of touchdown passes in his return to the lineup and Maryland kept the Spartans winless in the Big Ten with a 28-17 victory Saturday night. It was the Terrapins first win over Michigan State since Oct. 7, 1950.Maryland (5-2, 2-2 Big Ten) also extended the Spartans losing streak to five games, the longest skid under 10-year coach Mark Dantonio.That was a fun night for our guys, Maryland first-year coach DJ Durkin said. The message for our guys all week long, in particular later in the week, yesterday and today, was to have fun, enjoy this. This is a great opportunity. A night game. National TV. A program with great tradition who has had great success in our conference coming to town. We knew it was going to be a great atmosphere and it was.Ty Johnson led Marylands dominant running attack with 115 yards on nine carries, while Lorenzo Harrison finished with 105 yards on 17 carries. The Terrapins amassed 447 total yards and bounced back from a pair of losses.Disappointing outcome, Dantonio said. I thought we came into this football game prepared. The reality of this situation is too many missed opportunities on offense. Too many penalties on defense in the first half. Its tough to win a football game when two guys run for a hundred yards on you.Michigan State redshirt freshman Brian Lewerke got his second consecutive start and went 11 for 24 with 156 yards with an interception. He also ran for 79 yards on 10 carries. LJ Scott had a big day on the ground for the Spartans finishing with 128 yards and a touchdown.I think it was average, Lewerke said about his performance. I think I skipped the pocket a little too much. I just need to get better.Michigan State (2-5, 0-4) took its first lead, 17-14 on a 34-yard field goal by Michael Geiger with 1:35 left in the third quarter. Johnson continued to find a holes and a 44-yard run put Maryland into Michigan State territory. Two plays later, the Terraapins were back on top with a 2-yard run by Kenneth Goins Jr.ddddddddddddills put the game away with a 9-yard touchdown pass to Levern Jacobs with 3:23 left in the game. Hills, who suffered a shoulder injury Oct. 8 against Penn State and missed the previous game against Minnesota, was 21 of 27 for 200 yards Saturday.You shouldnt look at this game as life or death, its a game, Hills said. Everyone just had fun today.Michigan State linebacker Riley Bullough was ejected with 4:39 left in the first quarter for targeting. That penalty helped Maryland extend a season-long 96-yard scoring drive, capped by Harrisons 8-yard run.The Spartans went up-tempo and pulled to within 8-7 on a 48-yard touchdown run by Scott with 9:42 left in the second quarter. Hills responded on the ensuing drive with a 36-yard pass to D.J. Moore but Adam Greene missed the PAT.That allowed Michigan State to tie the game, 14-14, on a 1-yard run Gerald Holmes in the final minute of the half.LONG DISTANCEMaryland had a 96-yard scoring drive in the first quarter and another 90-yard drive just before halftime. It was the first time the Terrapins had two, 90-plus drives in the same game since Nov. 20, 1999, against Virginia.THE TAKEAWAYMichigan State: The Spartans face an uphill battle for a 10th straight bowl appearance with the toughest part of the their schedule still ahead. Michigan State must still play No. 3 Michigan next week and No. 2 Ohio State (Nov. 19).Maryland: After a 4-0 start, the Terrapins gained some much-needed momentum to avoid missing a bowl game for the second consecutive season. However, Maryland plays three ranked opponents (Michigan, Ohio State and No. 8 Nebraska) over its final five games.UP NEXTMichigan State hosts No. 3 Michigan (7-0, 4-0) next Saturday. The Spartans stunned Michigan 27-23 last season when safety Jalen Watts-Jackson picked up a flubbed punt and ran 38 yards for the go-ahead touchdown on the final play of the game.Maryland travels to Indiana on Saturday. The Hoosiers (3-4, 1-3) beat the Terrapins 47-28 last season and lead the all-time series 3-1. ' ' '