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jcy123 Offline



Beiträge: 4.798

14.04.2019 04:23
hen passing, measured in terms of standard deviation. When running, the spread among the 32 teams was 0.7 EPA, less than a third Antworten

TEMPE, Ariz. -- Kalen Ballage tied an NCAA record by scoring eight touchdowns and had 185 all-purpose yards, helping Arizona State outlast Texas Tech 68-55 in a wild game Saturday night.Two teams known for scoring points in bunches put on an offensive show in the desert, trading big plays and touchdowns on seemingly every snap.Arizona State (2-0) opened up its playbook in an attempt to keep up with the Red Raiders.Ballage was the focal point, scoring seven touchdowns on direct-snap runs and another on a 39-yard, double-reverse flea flicker. The junior matches the record set by Illinois Howard Griffin in 1990.Texas Tech (1-1) tried to keep up behind Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 540 yards and two touchdowns. The Red Raiders bogged down offensively in the second half, though, and had little defense against the quick-snapping Sun Devils.Mahomes had two passes intercepted by Gump Hayes, including one that set up Ballages seventh TD in the fourth quarter.Ballage followed with a 75-yard run up the middle to match the record on his 13th touch of the game. He also tied the FBS record with four touchdowns in the second quarter.THE TAKEAWAYTexas Tech: The Red Raiders proved they can still put up points, but continue to have problems defensively. Texas Tech allowed Manny Wilkins to pick through its secondary and had no answer when Arizona State went to its Wildcat set with Ballage in the red zone.Arizona State: The Sun Devils have found their rhythm offensively after struggling for most of three quarters against Northern Arizona last week. Wilkins played confidently, throwing for 351 yards and two touchdowns, while Ballage gave them an unexpected scoring punch by matching his touchdown total of the three previous seasons combined.UP NEXTTexas Tech: The Red Raiders host Louisiana Tech next Saturday.Arizona State: The Sun Devils play at UTSA on Friday. Corey Brewer Jersey . Hazard cut in from the left and scored with a swerving right-footed shot for ninth goal of the season, which proved to be enough for the victory despite Chelseas forwards again lacking a cutting edge up front. Dakari Johnson Jersey .C. at the helm of the top team in the Eastern Conference. His tenure as the GM in Vancouver was all too brief. Though he led the Canucks to what was then a franchise record-shattering campaign in just his second season, Nonis was gone and replaced one year later. http://www.cheapthundersjerseys.com/?tag=cheap-patrick-patterson-jersey . Patrice Bergeron and Daniel Paille scored 20 seconds apart a few minutes after Stamkos was taken off the ice on a stretcher with a broken right leg, and the Bruins beat the Lightning 3-0 on Monday afternoon. Jerami Grant Jersey . Aside from the trilogy main event title fight, there are a number of intriguing matchups in the heavyweight, welterweight and lightweight divisions. Kevin Durant Jersey . After a lengthy wait, persistent rain finally forced the postponement of the Nationals game against the Miami Marlins on Saturday night. The teams, and a few thousand fans, waited nearly four hours from the 7:05 scheduled start time before an announcement was made shortly before 11 p. When was the last time a dominant running back led his team to a Super Bowl title? You might have to go all the way back to Terrell Davis and the 1998 Denver Broncos for an example, and that might not be a fair one. Davis was playing alongside of a Hall of Fame quarterback in John Elway, after all. A more modern case such as Marshawn Lynch is misleading, because his 2013 Seahawks were successful thanks mostly to their defense, particularly their pass defense.The Vikings might want to keep that in mind when weighing the $18 million salary Adrian Peterson is due next season. Peterson, who is likely to miss the rest of 2016 with a knee injury and will turn 32 next season, has probably seen his best days as a runner. Its still possible for him to have some productive seasons ahead, but thats not the question for the Vikings. The question is whether he is worth $18 million. All of Petersons pay next season is in base salary and roster bonus, so Minnesota can cut him before 2017 without incurring any cap penalty.It has long been said that the NFL is a passing league, and for good reason. Its not just that passing has become more frequent and successful; it is more decisive in terms of scoring and winning. We know this thanks to Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA). EPA is our best measure of overall scoring productivity, measuring an offenses ability to move the ball, limit turnovers, and even suppress opponents opportunities to score. WPA does the same thing, but also considers game situation factors like score, time, and timeouts remaining.In 2015, the spread among the 32 teams was 2.3 EPA when passing, measured in terms of standard deviation. When running, the spread among the 32 teams was 0.7 EPA, less than a third of the impact of passing. In terms of WPA, the difference was only slightly less stark. The standard deviation among teams for passing was 1.1 WPA, and for running it was 0.4 WPA. In other words, a team should greatly prefer being a top passing team than a top running team by a factor of 3 to 1. Another way to look at this disparity is that being the most dominant running offense in the league would equate to being a modestly above-average passing offense.So in a world where $18 million is more in line with the salary of a second-tier quarterback, is it plausible that any running back would be worth that amount? If any running back would be worth it, it would be Peterson (or Peterson in his prime, at least). His suspension for nearly all of the 2014 season offers a conveniently large natural experiment for testing how much of an impact he made on the Vikings fortunes in recent years.Lets look at the past four full regular seasons (2012-15), and compare how the Vikings offense performed with Peterson on the field compared with off the field. On rushing plays, the Vikings performed measurably better with Peterson. Without him on the field, they averaged minus-0.01 EPA/play. But with him on the field, they averaged 0.02 EPA. Roughly speaking, that difference equates to about half a point per game. Another way to look at it is that the difference of 0.03 EPA/play would make an otherwise average offense into the 13th-best offense. Thats good, just not $18 million good.But Peterson contributed more than just rushing to the Vikings offense. Smart people in football will tell you his mere presence has drawn extra defenders near the line of scrimmage and has helped open up his teams passing.dddddddddddd Its a plausible assertion, but how true is it?Comparing Weeks 2 through 17 in 2014 and 2015 can give us an idea of Petersons influence on opposing defenses. Peterson played in Week 1 in 14 before missing the rest of the season, and without him, the Vikings saw an average of 6.7 defenders in the box. But with Peterson in 15, they saw an average of 7.1. And in those same games, the box was considered loaded, meaning there were more potential tacklers than potential blockers, only 17 times without Peterson in 14, but 117 times with Peterson in 15. So it looks like there was an effect, but what was the bottom line in terms of passing productivity?Lets look at the Vikings passing EPA rates with and without Peterson. On all pass plays, with Peterson on the field over the past four regular seasons, Minnesota averaged 0.12 EPA/play. Without him on the field? They averaged, yes, 0.12 EPA/play. A lot of other factors can affect those numbers, such as quarterback Teddy Bridgewaters development in the past two seasons, so lets break it out by year. The difference with and without Peterson on passing plays in the last four full seasons was minus-0.07, minus-0.04, minus-0.01, and 0.08 EPA/play, respectively. So although Peterson draws in the defense, it seems that the effect of an elite running back such as Peterson on the passing game is probably overstated at best, and non-existent at worst.So how can some free agent running backs be so overpaid? A few decades ago, the NFL was truly a running league and great RBs could make a much bigger impact on the game. Theres also the illusion from the fact that running backs happen to be the guys with the ball in their hands and the stats on the back of their trading cards. We all remember the days on the sandlot or on the varsity team where the running back is always the best athlete on the field. But running back has a high replacement level in the NFL in 2016, meaning there are a number of competent players available who arent much of a liability at the position, compared to relatively scarce positions like cornerback or offensive line. Lastly, theres the age-old causation/correlation fallacy in which running backs on winning teams get to pad their yardage totals by sealing wins in the fourth quarter, making them appear to be causing their teams success.Even Peterson in his prime would not be worth close to $18 million. Although such an athlete can be fascinating to watch and can win fantasy games for fans, the modern running game just barely moves the needle when it comes to competing for championships, and Minnesota is Exhibit A.After this season, the Vikings have 19 pending free agents currently earning a total of $34 million in per-year salaries over their contracts, including several starters. That $18 million in savings could go a long way toward shoring up other, more critical positions. Even a severe reduction in salary to half or even a third of what Peterson is due would be a mistake.There is some question whether Minnesota can cut him. Peterson has to be able to pass a physical to be cut, and his contract says his 2017 pay must be exercised before the end of the current season. But assuming the Vikings have a choice, sadly, there should be no choice. ' ' '

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